Pergerakan Harga dalam Trading Forex

Harga-harga bergerak dalam tiga arah yaitu:

1. Bullish, harga bergerak naik
2. Bearish, harga bergerak turun
3. Sideways, harga bergerak datar

Pergerakan harga (price action) dapat diibaratkan seperti pasang air, mulai dari riak (ripples), kemudian gelombang kecil (wave), dan puncaknya gelombang besar (tide), kembali menjadi gelombang kecil dan riak lagi.

Sifat dari gerakan harga dapat dibedakan menjadi:

1. Trending, harga cenderung mengarah naik atau turun
2. Volatile, harga bergolak bergerak cepat
3. Sideways, harga bergerak datar.

Sumber : Berdagangvalasonline

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40 Top Fund Manager

Tahun 2011 adalah tahun yang cukup “brutal” bagi para investor dunia, tetapi beberapa top fund managers berhasil menghasilkan profit layaknya “bandit” bank.

Menurut survey dari Majalah Forbes, 40 top fund managers terkaya di dunia berhasil meraup 13,2 milyar dollar AS. Di peringkat 10 besar, fund managers tersebut menghasilkan lebih dari 200 juta dollar AS, sedangkan di peringkat bawah menghasilkan sekitar 40 juta dollar AS.

Peringkat paling atas bertengger nama Raymond Dalio (63 tahun), seorang top fund manager dari Bridgewater Associates, firma investasi terbesar di dunia yang berhasil meraih keuntungan sebesar 3 milyar dollar AS. Dalio kecil memulai karir investasinya pada saat umur 12 tahun, dengan membeli saham Northeast Airlines sebesar $300 dan melipat gandakan nilai sahamnya menjadi 300%.

Seperti layaknya roda berputar, beberapa top fund managers ternama mengalami kekalahan di ladang permainannya sendiri. Yang paling mencolok adalah absennya 2 nama terkenal, John Paulson dan Philip Falcone yang membuat milyar-an dollar ketika memprediksi kolaps-nya subprime mortgage yang merupakani awal krisis global di tahun 2007.

James Simons dari Renaissance Technologies berada di peringkat kedua dengan pendapatan sebesar 2,1 miliar dollar AS. Simons yang diberi julukan sebagai “genius matematika” dikenal lebih suka merekrut seseorang tanpa latar belakang ilmu ekonomi. Orang-orang yang direkrut Simons adalah orang yang ahli dalam ilmu matematika, fisika dan statistika.

Selama lebih dari dua dekade, Renaissance Technologies yang berdagang di pasar seluruh dunia telah mengembangkan model matematika untuk menganalisa dan melakukan eksekusi perdagangan secara otomatis. Renaissance menggunakan komputer berbasis model untuk memprediksi perubahan harga instrumen keuangan yang diperdagangkan dengan mudah. Model ini didasarkan pada analisis data sebanyak yang dapat dikumpulkan, kemudian mencari pergerakan non-acak untuk membuat prediksi. Wow! 

Saya teringat suatu ungkapan menarik dari film “Wall Street: Money Never Sleep” yang berbunyi begini, “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered”. Meski tahun 2011 dikenal sebagai tahun yang buruk dan sangat volatile, seorang top trader yang baik selalu bisa menemukan dimana profitnya berada.

Sumber : Futuregalleria - Happy Trading 

Euro Melemah Versus US Dollar

Financeroll — Euro melemah terhadap dolar AS setelah kekhawatiran pembayaran kredit default swap Yunani kembali muncul dan inflasi di tingkat produsen zona euro naik melampaui perkiraan.

Euro sempat diperdagangkan di level tertinggi 1,3333 dan level terendah 1,3213 terhadap dolar AS, turun 0,73 persen. Memicu penjualan mata uang tunggal tersebut, Asosiasi Swaps dan Derivatif Internasional sedang mempertimbangkan untuk memicu pembayaran default swap kredit karena klausul tindakan kolektif.

Sementara itu, pada pertemuan puncak pemimpin Eropa di Brussels, para pemimpin zona euro nyatakan sebuah titik balik krisis utang. Para pemimpin sepakat bahwa pemberian paket bantuan Yunani yang dimulai dan potensi resesi zona euro, saatnya untuk fokus pada agenda pro pertumbuhan meskipun perjanjian pengawasan defisit ditandatangani hari ini.

Kanselir Jerman, Angela Merkel, berubah sikap atas melambatnya pembayaran untuk dana penyelamatan permanen 500 miliar euro untuk mempercepat pembayaran di KTT tersebut. Dikenal sebagai Fasilitas Stabilitas Keuangan Eropa, dana tetap akan dikucurkan pada bulan Juli.

Sumber : Financeroll, Maret 2012

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Harga Emas Harus Naik Lagi !

Financeroll – Seiring dengan perjalanan waktu sebuah operasional perusahan akan semakin meningkat, begitu pun dengan industri emas dimana industri ini sangat bergantung dari hasil tambang yang di lakukan oleh perusahaan explorasi pertambangan emas.

Menurut informasi dari penulis Mine Web Geoff Candy, sebuah perusahaan explorasi pertambangan emas akan dapat menghirup “udara” segar jika harga emas dunia tetap berada di atas $ 1650 / ounce.

Berbicara di sela-sela acara African Mining Indaba conference 2012, CEO AngloGold Ashanti Mark Cutifani mengatakan dengan harga $1.650/ounce penambang emas hanya bisa mengembalikan biaya rata-rata modal tertimbang untuk industri.

Ini adalah jumlah yang penambang emas perlu untuk bisa bekerja secara real katanya. Lalu dia menambahkan “Biaya rata-rata untuk menghasilkan satu ounce emas secara total sebesar $1.200 – $1.200.

CEO Harmony Gold Graham Briggs setuju dengan pernyataan Cutifani. Dia mengatakan pendapat Citifani tentang biaya pembuatan emas mulai dari tanah kurang lebih sekitar $1.250. Angka ini termasuk segala biaya operasional kantor pusat Harmony.

Dengan informasi ini semakin kecil peluang emas untuk turun lebih dalam, hal ini dikarenakan selain aspek nilai emas sebagai alat investasi yang aman, perusahaan penambangan emas juga tidak ingin rugi atau bahkan bangkrut yang bisa mengakibatkan pengangguran baru jika sampai harga emas terus turun secara terus menerus. Banyak cara yang mereka bisa lakukan untuk menahan agar laju emas bisa tetap di atas $1.650/ ounce.


Sumber : Financeroll-Emas

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Suku Bunga ECB : 1 %

Financeroll — Bank Sentral Eropa pertahankan suku bunga utamanya untuk bulan kedua berturut-turut Kamis, di tengah tanda-tanda bahwa ekonomi zona euro mulai stabil dan pemerintah Yunani kemungkinan mendekati kesepakatan dengan kreditur yang akan menghindari default.

Keputusan mempertahankan suku bunga pada rekor rendah 1 persen memperkuat perkiraan hampir semua analis dalam survei Dow Jones Newswires, yang telah memperkirakan ECB untuk menahan diri setelah langkah kebijakan baru-baru ini yang kuat membantu mengembalikan ketenangan kepada pasar.

Biaya pinjaman non-inti negara-negara zona euro seperti Spanyol dan Italia telah turun tajam dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, sebuah sinyalemen meredanya ketegangan pasar sejak ECB menyuntikkan hampir setengah triliun euro ke dalam sistem perbankan pada bulan Desember melalui pinjaman tiga-tahun pertama kalinya.

Selengkapnya, klik sumber beritanya.
Sumber : Financeroll, 9 Feb 2012  Baca juga : Kompas Bisnis

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USD Interbank Market

USD interbank market still hostage to credit risks

SINGAPORE, Reuters said that the cost of overnight U.S. dollar funds was barely changed for short tenors up to three months in Asia on Tuesday, with a lingering wariness of credit risk keeping spreads from tightening further.

U.S. markets are closed for a Veteran's Day holiday on Tuesday. That meant there were no transactions for overnight dollar deposits in Asia, although there were tom-next trades where traders borrowed one-day funds beginning from Wednesday.

Tom-next dollar rates were quoted at 0.1 to 0.6 percent in Singapore and a narrower 0.1-0.35 percent range in Hong Kong, traders said, below the Federal Reserve's 1 percent target and in ranges similar to those dealt in London and New York.

Three-month rates eased to between 2.2 and 2.75 percent in Singapore, almost in line with LIBOR on Friday and just a shade lower than the 2.3-3 percent range on Friday in Asia.

"Liquidity is very thin," said a trader in Singapore. The worry about credit risk was weighing very heavily on volumes, he said. (Reporting by Vidya Ranganathan; Editing by Jan Dahinten)

Wall Street falls

Wall Street falls, unable to shake economic woes

By MADLEN READ, AP Business Writer

NEW YORK – Wall Street's initial enthusiasm about a $586 billion Chinese stimulus package fizzled Monday, as investors succumbed to anxieties about how U.S. companies will survive a severe pullback in spending.

Stocks got a short-lived boost from China's plans to boost its economy through a mix of spending, subsidies, looser credit policies and tax cuts. The package could benefit multinational companies with business in China such as General Electric Co. and Caterpillar Inc.

But Wall Street's optimism quickly waned, as it has tended to do since the mid-September downfall of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and government takeover of the troubled insurance giant American International Group. Market participants realized that while China's stimulus is a positive sign that governments around the world are working to fix the global economy, the stimulus itself will likely have only a limited effect in the United States.

There was little news Monday to placate investors worried about the health of corporate America. AIG got more money from the U.S. government, but the nation's struggling automakers have yet to hear whether they, too, will get federal aid. And electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. filed for bankruptcy protection.

With few signs of recovery in the economy, few investors are confident enough to make big bets on stocks, although they look cheap; the major indexes are down about 40 percent from their October 2007 peaks. "They'd like to be optimistic, but individual investors are still very worried," said Hugh Johnson, chief investment officer of Johnson Illington Advisors. Uncertainty about the economic outlook is "likely to hold any recovery somewhat in check. We're arguably undervalued, so we can work our way higher. But it's not going to be with a lot of gusto."

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 73.27, or 0.82 percent, to 8,870.54, after rising by 215 points in early trading and tumbling by as many as 183. But trading was fairly orderly in the last hour — in recent weeks, stocks have often seen high volatility late in the day. Broader indexes also ended lower. The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 11.78, or 1.27 percent, to 919.21, and the Nasdaq composite index fell 30.66, or 1.86 percent, to 1,616.74.

The U.S. government said it would invest $40 billion into AIG, which also reported a nearly $25 billion third-quarter loss Monday. AIG, which got its first bailout in September, has so far received a total of $150 billion in government aid. The government's investment Monday helped the insurer's stock rise 26 cents, or 12 percent, to $2.37, but raised worries that problems in the financial sector might be worse than anticipated. Most bank shares fell.

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Dollar Libor Drops as Central-Bank Cash

Rate Cuts Thaw Lending 

By Gavin Finch

The cost of borrowing dollars for one month in London fell to the lowest level in almost four years as central-bank cash injections and interest-rate cuts worldwide showed signs of thawing the freeze in lending.

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, that banks charge each other for such loans slid 18 basis points to 2.18 percent today, the lowest level since November 2004, and the 17th straight decline, according to British Bankers' Association data. The three-month rate dropped 15 basis points to 2.71 percent, the lowest level since June 9, according to BBA figures.

Interbank rates have tumbled worldwide as central banks slashed interest rates and governments pledged as much as $3 trillion of emergency funds to kickstart lending. Australia's central bank cut its benchmark rate by a bigger-than-expected 75 basis points to 5.25 percent today, joining policy makers in China, Hong Kong, India, Japan and the U.S. in reducing borrowing costs in the past week.

``The central bank measures have helped ease the severe tensions we were seeing,'' said Christoph Rieger, a fixed-income strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort in Frankfurt. ``There's pretty brisk activity in the dollar space out to one month.''

The European Central Bank and Bank of England will cut their key rates by 50 basis points in two days, according to Bloomberg surveys. Three-month dollar Libor also slid for a 17th consecutive day today, according to the BBA. The rate was at 4.82 percent on Oct. 10, the day before the streak began.

`More Stability'

``We're seeing more stability in money-market rates,'' said Song Seng-Wun, a regional economist at CIMB-GK Securities Pte in Singapore. ``There is money there and liquidity is flowing a bit better. But I suppose financial institutions remain cautious about lending.''

The Frankfurt-based ECB today lent banks 312 billion euros ($398 billion) in its weekly auction at 3.75 percent, 243.5 billion euros more than it estimated was needed. The ECB loaned a further $70.8 billion for 84 days at 1.6 percent to boost dollar liquidity in Europe.

Borrowing among banks, essential to keep financial markets working, froze after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy Sept. 15, shattering lenders' confidence they would be repaid. In a sign some banks are still wary of lending, financial institutions deposited a record amount of cash with the ECB, lodging 280.23 billion euros overnight at a rate of 3.25 percent. Banks deposited about 279.37 billion euros on Oct. 31.

Bagansiap-api Rokanhilir Riau

Yen Retreats as Stock Rebounds

Daily Report: 

Yen Retreats as Stock Rebounds, Dollar to Follow?

The Japanese yen retreats further today following rebound in Asian stock markets as well as increased speculation of intervention. Nikkei is up more than 6% after hitting a 26 years low yesterday. MSCI Asia Pacific Index is up over 2% after closing at the lowest level since Aug 2003 yesterday. There are also increased speculations of intervention after G7 issued a statement over the weekend expressing it's concern on the strength of yen's exchange rate. Though, the possibility of coordinated intervention is not likely at this moment after French Finance Minister Lagarde said this will be a "pure Japanese" intervention.

Technically speaking, as discussed before, USD/JPY has made a short term bottom at 90.92 last week. Development in other yen crosses indicates that short term bottom should be formed there too. Though, there is still no change in the medium term bearish outlook and the down trend is still expected to extend further after completing the current rebound.

Focus should now turns to the whether the greenback has topped out in short term too. Intraday momentum of dollar index is seen diminishing with mild bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD. A break below 86.65 minor support will argue that a short term top is in place at 87.87 after the index fails below 100% projection of 75.89 to 83.18 from 80.75 at 88.04.***

Gold Climbs in New York

Gold Climbs in N.Y. as Investors Seek Haven From Falling Shares 

By Pham-Duy Nguyen

Gold price climbed in New York, erasing earlier losses, as equities tumbled worldwide, boosting demand for the precious metal as a safe harbor. Silver fell.

U.S. Treasuries rose as investors bought government securities amid a worldwide collapse in shares. The dollar climbed as much as 1.9 percent against a weighted basket of six major currencies before paring gains.  "You're seeing some people buy gold because the panic about the stock market is setting in,'' said Leonard Kaplan, president of Prospector Asset Management in Evanston, Illinois. "Gold's rallied more than $30 off its lows for the day.''

Gold futures for December delivery gained $15.60, or 2.2 percent, to $730.30 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The metal declined 7.3 percent this week and is heading for a 17 percent drop this month, the worst such performance since March 1980.

Silver for December delivery fell 20.5 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $9.295 an ounce. The most-active contract has dropped 38 percent this year, after seven straight annual gains, and is down 24 percent in October.

The outlook for silver is "moderately bearish'' while for gold, it is ``bearish, as inflation risk is moving away and all indicators are red,'' Frederic Lasserre, the global head of commodities research at Societe Generale SA in Paris, and Stephanie Aymes, an analyst, said today in a report.  "A global recession is confirmed by weak corporate results.''

Market Turmoil

The MSCI World Index of developed markets has dropped 8.1 percent this week. Russia's Micex Stock Exchange stopped trading until Oct. 28 after shares slumped 14 percent. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost as much as 6.1 percent and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 5.8 percent.

The euro touched $1.2497 today, a two-year low, before paring losses. It reached a record $1.6038 on July 15.  Earlier, gold dropped as much as 4.7 percent and was headed for the biggest weekly decline since Jan. 25, 1980.

"People are short covering,'' said Joel Crane, metals strategist for Deutsche Bank AG in New York. "Some funds are forced to cover their positions after this week's unexpected drop.'' After the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on Sept. 15 triggered a $700 billion bailout package by the U.S. government, gold traded as high as $936.30 on Oct. 10 as investors sought a haven. The metal also touched $681 today as investors sold futures to cover losses in other markets.

"The market wants to liquidate everything, everywhere,'' said Dennis Gartman, an economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter. Investment in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by bullion, fell to 747.1 metric tons yesterday. It reached a record 770.6 tons on Oct. 10. ***

Dollar Gains Most Since 1992

Dollar Gains Most Since 1992 on Concern Global Slump Deepening 

By Ye Xie

The dollar gained the most in 16 years against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as a global economic slowdown spurred demand for the greenback as a haven from losses in emerging markets.

"The foreign-exchange market is basically saying we are in a global recession and perhaps a very, very deep one,'' Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in New York, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. "Any sense of rationality and fundamentals is thrown out the window.''

Japan's yen also benefited as investors fled high-risk assets and used the proceeds to pay back low-cost loans taken out in the currency. The yen climbed to a 13-year high against the dollar this week and surged to its strongest level against the euro in six years. The pound fell below $1.53 in its biggest weekly drop since investor George Soros drove sterling out of Europe's system of linked exchange rates in 1992.

The dollar appreciated 6 percent to $1.2623 per euro this week, from $1.3410 on Oct. 17. The currency touched $1.2497 per euro yesterday, the strongest since October 2006. The yen rallied 7.8 percent to 94.32 per dollar from 101.69, and touched 90.93 yesterday, its highest level since August 1995. Against the euro, the yen climbed 12.7 percent to 118.96 from 136.21. It touched 113.81 yesterday, the strongest since May 2002.

This week's decline in the euro was its biggest against the dollar and the yen since the 15-nation currency's inception in January 1999. The yen's gain versus the dollar was the biggest since October 1998.

Dollar Index

ICE Futures' Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, the yen, the pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, rose 4.9 percent this week, the most since September 1992. It touched 86.97 yesterday, the highest level since October 2006.

"We are in a financial crisis,'' said Richard Clarida, a global strategist at Newport Beach, California-based Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees $830 billion in assets, including the world's biggest bond fund.  "The flight to quality is boosting the dollar and the yen.''

Emerging-market currencies tumbled as Argentina seized private pension funds, and Belarus, Ukraine, Hungary and Iceland joined Pakistan in requesting at least $20 billion of emergency loans from the International Monetary Fund. Brazil's real dropped 8.2 percent to 2.3075 against the dollar, the South African rand decreased 10.4 percent to 11.18 and the Russian ruble fell 3.2 percent to 27.1991. ***